The "God Made Trump" ad

As the 2024 US presidential election heats up, former President Donald Trump is the frontrunner in the GOP primary races, particularly in New Hampshire and Iowa. However, polls display divergent views on the extent of his lead, especially against rivals like Nikki Haley.
Some surveys suggest a narrowing difference, while others show Trump maintaining a substantial advantage.
Haley, a former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador, has been rising in the polls, credited in part to endorsements and strong debate performances.
Meanwhile, other GOP candidates like Ron DeSantis and Chris Christie also vie for nomination amidst claims of Trump underperforming expectations.

Concurrently, Trump’s overall popularity remains high as his net favorability outstrips President Joe Biden’s for ten consecutive weeks, despite legal challenges.
Trump’s alignment with evangelical support is evident, including a controversial “God Made Trump” ad that has ignited both endorsement and criticism.
The ex-president is aggressively targeting Haley, using controversial tactics like spreading a “birther” conspiracy and criticizing her campaign funding sources. He aims to strengthen his position before key nominating events.

Consensus:

Donald Trump is leading in the Republican presidential primary race, notably in New Hampshire and Iowa.
Nikki Haley is a notable contender who has risen to second place in recent polls.
Trump’s popularity remains high as his net favorability is consistently above Biden’s.
GOP candidates are actively campaigning, and the political dynamics continue to shift as primary dates approach.

Contested Claims:

There are differing opinions on the extent of Trump’s lead over Haley. As per Fox News, one poll shows a close race with Trump at 39% and Haley at 32%, suggesting Haley is “within striking distance,” while another poll indicates a wider 19-point Trump lead.
The impact of the “God Made Trump” ad is debated. Christian Headlines highlights the ad’s controversial message and backlash it received, while Business Insider reports Trump’s sharing of the video as an embrace of a messianic image. This demonstrates a divergence in the perception of Trump’s campaign messaging and its resonance with voters.
Birther Claims: Mediaite, NBC News, and Indy100 dispute Trump’s claims that Haley is ineligible to be president due to her parents’ citizenship status at her birth, with legal experts affirming her eligibility.

Claims by a single publication:

Carville’s prediction that Trump will underperform in Iowa [Breitbart]
DeSantis’s policy proposals, such as imposing a balanced budget requirement and term limits for Congress members [USA Today]
Trump’s characterization of his detractors and the potential effects on independent voters in primary races is contested (Fox News).

Sources: